Race Analysis - Friday, May 28

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: TAMIS STORMTROOPER just missed in a similar race in her first start in over a year and should be able to take them the whole way with a race under her belt. She has made the lead in most of her races and if she can get the jump on BEAR'S TRUE GAL she'll be tough to catch. BEAR'S TRUE GAL wasn't that far behind the top pick in her initial start this year and could move forward enough to give TAMIS STORMTROOPER a real battle. She also has a strong record at the distance. SHEISROUGH has posted a couple of bullet workouts leading up to her seasonal debut and should be ready for a big effort coming off the bench. She knows how to win races and she is certainly capable in this type of abbreviated sprint.

RACE TWO: SANTANA WINDS has looked pretty sharp in his works this spring and he was quick enough to win going this distance last year. Perez abandons a very live looking LUCK OF THE DEVIL and we're going to follow his lead. LUCK OF THE DEVIL is a maiden but he has shown good speed in both of his races going around two turns and could be dangerous with the cutback in distance. He is coming back pretty quickly for a horse that is just getting started but he doesn't have to go very far and the quick turn around shouldn't be an issue. FOUR SPADES won his debut going this far last year and he should appreciate both the easier company and shorter distance after tiring in his initial start this year. He also comes out of a barn that has decent numbers with horses making their second start following a layoff - 14 percent over the past 5-years.

RACE THREE: MUD SWEAT 'N TEARS made a strong late move but couldn't catch a horse that had things her own way in her latest. It was her second start over this track and she could be ready for a big effort in her third try at a two turn sprint. Her latest Beyer Speed Figure stands out here and if she comes close to putting up the same number she is going to be tough to handle. EMMITT'S GIRL was first or second in 10 of her 14 races last year and she should be set for a big effort in her second start of the year. She had a decent interim work and she won't mind the drop to bottoms after facing a pretty solid group last time. APILONIA finished with good speed going 3 1/2 furlongs and shouldn't mind the move to a longer sprint. Over the past 5-years her trainer is a solid 15 percent with horses coming back for a second start following a layoff. NOTIS ME runs well fresh, has been working well enough, and could stick around a long time if she gets away on her own.

RACE FOUR: PARTY PROSPECTOR ran a big race to finish second when he debuted at this level May 15 and it is very encouraging to see the easy half-mile breeze eight days later. He figures to take a big step forward here and if he doesn't get bogged down on the rail he's going to be tough to beat. HE'S CRUISIN didn't show much in his only start but he worked a bullet 5-furlongs in 1:01 flat over a track rated good and his trainer rarely works them fast. He could be telling us something and if he can run at all he could make some noise here. PEMBRIDGE usually picks up a slice and could be ready for a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle. It is hard to love him on top with his running style but he should certainly be considered for the exotics. QUATCHI cuts his price in half for the second straight race and should appreciate the easier company.

RACE FIVE: Not sure what's wrong with TRIBAL TEEN and there are some obvious concerns with a horse taking this big of a drop. Nonetheless, he is clearly the quickest horse in the field and he only has to run 3 1/2 furlongs. Perez sticks with him and if he breaks alertly he should be gone. LOGANDALE came back with a sharp 3-furlong bullet in :34.40 seconds following his game win April 24 and he won't mind the cutback in distance. It isn't usually Milburn's style to drop them in price following a win, but once again, they are only going a very short distance so we'll overlook the unusual move from the barn. MR. APPLE CIDER ran into a couple of tough ones when he finished fourth going this distance in his initial start this year and then couldn't carry his speed the whole way when he stretched out to six-furlongs in his latest. He should be set up nicely for this and should be considered for the exotics. A REAL STORM won twice going this far last year and has been working forwardly for his 2010 debut.

RACE SIX: SOLDIERS RETURN looked good winning his latest at this level and with a lively pace expected he should get a similar type of trip. He closed out 2007 with a back to back wins and then reeled off three in a row in 2008 so he's certainly capable of putting good races together. AND ALL THAT JAZZ is the big question mark in the race. He is the speed and class of the field but he has faded badly in both of his starts this year and he only hit the board once in five races last year. Nonetheless, he is taking a substantial drop and if BATTLE OF HASTINGS doesn't put any pressure on him early he could be gone. THREE WOOD rallied to finish a couple of lengths behind SOLDIERS RETURN in his latest and could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. BATTLE OF HASTINGS could inherit the lead if AND ALL THAT JAZZ gives it up early. Over the past 5-years his new trainer is 18 percent when he runs them back the first time after the claim.

RACE SEVEN: ALERT N WISE ran into a tough Battle of Hastings when he made his seasonal debut for $12,500 May 15 and should appreciate the easier company he's facing here. He is capable of stalking SCOTS PINE, or it is possible Alvarado will just put him right on the lead. He also figures to move forward with a race under his belt. MONSTERINTHECLOSET made a strong late move to get up for second in a similar race and there is a good chance a duel will develop up front. SCOTS PINE has been right there in three straight races and his last two were at this level. If ALERT N WISE doesn't go with him right away he could stick around a long time. FORCEFUL INTENTION didn't have any noticeable excuses when he flopped as the favorite last time but it is possible he bounced off of his strong effort in his first start following a layoff. It is easy to see him rebounding with a better performance here and the price will be a lot juicier than it was last time.