Race Analysis - Sunday, May 2

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: ADVANTAGE TO SKIP flashed good speed in both of his starts at two and he held on well to finish fourth in his lone try going around two turns. He adds Lasix, has been working well enough, and should be tough to catch if he breaks alertly. MACHINE doesn't appear to have much early lick but he closed with good speed in his debut and he was up against it breaking from the 11-hole in his second start. Barn is off to an excellent start at the meet and the works have been just fine. STORY'S END worked a strong 5-furlongs on April 10 and all three of his siblings are winners including the speedy Woombroom Express who won the B.C. Sprint last year. He is also a full-brother to Destiny's Home who has earned $108K, so there should be some potential here.

RACE TWO: POSTMASTER GENERAL just missed against tougher coming off of a similar layoff in 2009 and he looked pretty sharp in his half-mile move over a wet-fast track on Wednesday. He drops to a career low and could be dangerous as a fresh horse. BUCKAROO LOU looks like the main threat. He won coming off of the bench last year and he catches a field where it looks like he should be able to control the tempo right from the start. Works have been steady if not spectacular and if he breaks on top he could be gone. LUCKY ON THE RIVER has worked well enough since he arrived here from Turf Paradise and he should have a fitness edge with three races under his belt this year.

RACE THREE: CRY CRY CRY posted a 78 Beyer Speed Figure for her win in a $15K maiden race at the Fairgrounds and that is by far the best figure in the field. Obviously there are some concerns with a horse that hasn't raced in over a year and we really don't like to see them get turned out following a sharp performance. Nonetheless, her works have been decent and she is certainly in capable hands. QUILLO'S INTENTION has been stakes placed a couple of times, drops to a new low, and hasn't missed a beat this spring. She should be ready for a good effort and she is certainly going to appreciate the class relief. REDNECK LEGEND scored an easy win when she debuted for this price just under a year ago and has worked smartly leading up to her return. Snow is 18 percent over the past five years with horses returning from lengthy layoffs so it wouldn't be surprising to see her come back running.

RACE FOUR: INDIAN LOVE may have tipped his hand with a sharp half-mile move on April 28 and if he comes close to some of his races in Southern California he'll be tough to handle. It has been over a year since he ran but it is nice to see his connections bring him back protected so they must like the way he is going. ELUSIVE WAYS is another one that has been away for quite some time but like the top pick he has looked good in his works leading up to his comeback. A couple of his siblings are stakes winners with over $500K in earnings so the breeding is there. UPPER CRUST is a filly tackling the boys but she has been working lights out and she ran a big race in her debut last year so we know she can fire fresh. SAGE GOLD is another one that has been working well enough and some of his races last year would put him in the mix.

RACE FIVE: DOUBLE GOOSE ran greenly when she debuted in a maiden special weight race that produced a couple of next out winners. Plus the winner of the race, B.C. Cat, turned out to be a pretty nice one and she beat colts and geldings in an allowance race here last weekend. DOUBLE GOOSE is a half-sister to $110K earner Pinki Dinki so there could be more here than meets the eye. She could be worth a stab in a race where the likely favorite has to be considered suspect. FINAL PLEASURE will have her work cut out from this post but she has some speed might be able to get into a good position early. She ran a decent race coming off of the bench last year and she should be fit enough with a 6-furlong move under her belt. LA NORIA will likely be the heavy chalk and it wouldn't surprise anyone if she won here. The substantial drop is a big concern and she would look a lot better with a couple of more works showing. Olmos has been pretty good with horses returning from this kind of layoff, however.

RACE SIX: NOTORIOUSLY shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint and she is coming off of strong performance in a race that produced a couple of next out winners. Sheza Foxy Jackpot came back to win a $25K claiming race on the turf at Golden Gate and the horse that finished last won a $40K starter race on grass there April 18. As well as being a sharp horse right now, NOTORIOUSLY should also have a big fitness edge over the rest of the field. PAT'S BID is the only other horse with a race this year and the last time we saw her here she finished second to Otero in the Lassie Stakes. Her works are solid and she figures to be ready for a big effort. THERUSSIANROCKET won at this level last year and she ran well to finish a close fourth in an allowance race in her final start as a 2-year-old. Sharp work on April 25 is encouraging and she should be ready to go.

RACE SEVEN: STREAKIN' MOHICAN didn't break as sharply as usual and his rider may have lost his whip coming out of the gate because he didn't have it in the stretch when he got beat as the odds-on choice in his latest at Golden Gate. Horse that beat him shipped up from Santa Anita and the last place horse came back to win a $25K claiming race in his next start at Golden Gate. This will be his first start on dirt but it looked like he handled the local surface just fine when he worked a best of the day half-mile on April 15. DYNA STROLL appears to be coming up to his first start as a sophomore in excellent shape and he should get a nice trip from not too far off of what figures to be a lively pace. VICTOR'S MAGIC overall record is better than it looks as he found a way to get into a lot of trouble in the races he wasn't a major factor in. Nice win in his final start of the year and he has been working smartly while getting ready for this.

RACE EIGHT: DRAFTING FOR SPEED is as honest as the come at this level and she seemed to improve as the season wore on last year. Works are solid for her return and she has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post. RAYITO DE LUNA ran well as a fresh horse last year and her 6-furlong move on April 20 should have her fit and ready to go. Her best races were going longer but she has won sprinting and the only concern is that she could get bogged down on the rail. SARATOGA QUEEN looks like the best speed in the field and could take them a long way if she clears early. SUNDAY MISS has been working well enough for a trainer that has solid stats bring horses back from this type of layoff - 15 percent over the past five years. She probably wants more distance but her new jockey is off to a strong start so you might want to use her in the exotics.