Race Analysis for Saturday, May 15

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: BEAUTIFUL BREEZE was forced a little wide going around the first turn and then made a bit of a late move to finish third in a similar race May 1. She came back with a sharp half-mile move and could take a big step forward in her second start back. She moves to the rail so she figures to save some ground this time and there should be an honest pace for her to work with. MCGILL just missed in the same race the top pick exits and is an obvious threat to win this. She will have to deal with other speed, however, and she has a tendency to give it up late. MUD SWEAT 'N TEARS had to check pretty hard going into the first turn and may not have been comfortable after that. She gets off the rail where she should be able to stalk what figures to be a lively pace. She's worth a look at what could be a decent price.

RACE TWO: FIN DU JOUR raced a little greenly during the early stages but then made a strong late move when he debuted for $10K on April 25. He came back with a sharp half-mile move May 9 and should be tough to handle with the 50 percent cut in price. He also figures to take a big step forward in his second start. PEMBRIDGE was much the best in his latest but had to settle for second after getting bumped and stumbling at the break. He’s had a decent interim work and with a clean trip he should at the very least be able to round out the exacta. ORCHID'S STORM tried blinkers for the first time since he debuted in 2008 and it was a failed experiment as he didn't run a jump in the same race FIN DU JOUR exits. He was a pretty consistent horse last year so you might want to toss him in the exotics with the blinkers coming off. FREE LANCE took a big step forward in his second career start and could hang around long enough to pick up a share.

RACE THREE: FORCEFUL INTENTION figures to move forward in his second start following a layoff and with his good tactical speed he should get a nice trip from just off of a lively pace. Nice work since he ran and it won't hurt that he moves closer to the rail. MONSTERINTHECLOSET won coming off of the bench last year and he has been working well enough for a trainer that is off to a decent start at the meet. It is also encouraging to see Perez take the call. He could be live at what should be a square price. SCOTS PINE posted a career best Beyer Speed Figure when he just missed in the same race the top pick exits and appears to be an improved horse this year. He could bounce, and there is other potential speed in the field, however. COLONDELIVERY has been sharp this spring and fits with these. Consider using him in the exotics.

RACE FOUR: BATTLE OF HASTINGS looked pretty sharp in his win going 3 1/2 furlongs at this level and the extra distance shouldn't be a problem. He was fast enough to make the lead in the B.C. Cup Sprint and we'll assume Gutierrez will put him right on the lead here. He looks pretty solid coming back for this price, especially with the sharp half-mile interim move showing. ALERT N WISE posted an 88 Beyer Speed Figure coming off of a similar layoff last year and he's certainly been working well enough. He is clearly the main threat and if he does get the jump on BATTLE OF HASTINGS, he could be gone. LOYAL SON ran evenly in his initial try in a two-turn sprint and could move forward in his second try. It was also his first try on dirt and if he can post the same kind of figures that he did on synthetic tracks in California he could make some noise at what should be a decent price. STANDING HIGH will appreciate the hot pace and could get up in time to spice up the exotics.

RACE FIVE: QUATCHI should appreciate the easier company and he figures to move forward with a start under his belt. Condilenios has excellent stats with horses coming back for a second start from a layoff and over the past 5-years he is 19 percent with horses cutting their price by 50 percent. QUATCHI has four siblings that were at least stakes placed including B.C. Derby winner Cruising Kat so there is some pedigree potential as well. DIABLO PASS ran decently in both of his races last year and has worked well enough leading up to his initial start as a 3-year-old. He didn't break that sharply in either of his races and he could be dangerous if he leaves there running from his outside post. WOODEN GAGE worked a very good 6-furlongs leading up to his debut and it looks like he can run a bit. If he can, he could make an impact in a race that doesn't have a lot of solid form to go on.

RACE SIX: MALAKWA ran a huge race when she debuted last year, finishing second in a race that produced four next out winners. Plus, the horse that won the race won four stakes in a row. She has been working lights out this spring and she figures to be long gone if she breaks alertly. Her only sibling was stakes placed going a middle-distance so she should be able to carry her speed this far. AUDZEEZEE came back with a sharp work following her solid second in a similar race April 25. She figures to move forward in her second start back and she's been right in the mix in all four of her races. Her outside post isn't going to help her chances, however. CALL ME JEWEL helped spice up the exotics when she checked in third at 41-1 in the same race AUDZEEZEE exits. She also came back with a sharp work and once again should be a square price. Use her in the exotics.

RACE SEVEN: SENOR ROJO is as consistent as they come and could be the one in a race that is hard to get a firm grip on. Most of these want more distance and the ones that can sprint have class issues. SENOR ROJO fits in the class department and he can sprint. The only negative is his outside post. ARKHILL hasn't been seen since he won an allowance race at the end of the year in 2008. Nonetheless, that 6 1/2 furlong work in 1:18 flat was pretty sensational and MacPherson is off to a tremendous start at the meet. SPAGHETTI MOUSE and KRAZY KOFFEE are certainly the class of the party but they obviously want more distance. SPAGHETTI MOUSE came back with a sharp work following his dull seasonal debut over a track he might not have cared for and notice how much he improved in his second start last year. Take your pick.

RACE EIGHT: STOUTHEARTD has good speed, drew the rail and figures to be tough to handle if he gets away cleanly. He couldn't hold off a tough one at this level in his latest but he had to have needed the race and should be tighter in his second start following a long layoff. TOUGH TORQUE runs well fresh, has been working well enough and appears to be the main threat. LUCKY ON THE RIVER comes off of a couple of subpar efforts, but he hits pretty hard at this level and he looked pretty sharp in his half-mile move on May 9. SELIMAN and WILLIE KATCHEM scratched out of tougher spots on Friday to run here and both appear to have a chance of filling out the tri or super. HOP HAPPY should also be considered for the exotics off of his decent effort behind STOUTHEARTED.