Race Analysis for Friday, June 11

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: HONEY'S MONARCH is bred for distance top and bottom and it looks like he has enough speed to control the race right from the start. The son of a Kentucky Derby winner, HONEY’S MONARCH has tired in both of his sprints this year he could have a lot more stamina with the slower fractions he is going to be allowed to set here. MACHINE also has plenty of stamina in his breeding and will likely be favored off of his fast closing second in a $30K maiden sprint in his first start this year. He is clearly the one to beat. DIAMOND SPIKES made up a lot of ground in the same race HONEY'S MONARCH was backing up in and he should appreciate the extra yardage. He came close to winning a cheaper maiden race going this far last year and he is the only one with experience going around three turns.

RACE TWO: JUMP TO IT showed decent speed and then held on reasonably well while going wide in her initial start this year. She ran like a horse that should do well going longer and she could be dangerous if she can get away with soft fractions leaving from her inside post. She also has the pedigree to get the distance. She would look a lot better if she had at least one more race behind her but over the past five years her trainer is 17 percent with horses stretching out for the first time. DIVA BALLERINA has had two sprints and she closed with good speed when she dropped to this level for her latest. Her trainer also has decent stats with horses going long the first time - 15 percent over the past five years. CHILECITO will likely be favored with the 50 percent drop in price and could easily win this. Her only sibling is a route winner that also placed in a stakes race going a middle distance.

RACE THREE: CHEROKEE TEAR drops to a new low following an even effort in a key race and the winner came right back to win a $50K optional race over Woombroom Express who is one of the best sprinters on the grounds. This guy came back with a solid work and there should be an honest pace to set up his good late move. No wins at the distance but his Beyer Speed Figures are certainly good enough and he could be ready for a big effort in his second start following a lengthy layoff. WINTER WARNING has plenty of back class, runs well fresh, and has been working decently leading up to his seasonal debut. His trainer can also have them ready to go coming from off of a long layoff. RIGHT HONORABLE drops in price after a decent effort behind a very sharp Soldiers Joy in his latest. AND ALL THAT JAZZ shouldn't have to go nearly as fast this time and it might be worth giving him one more chance.

RACE FOUR: YOOROCK GAL looked good winning her latest sprint and should be able to stand the jump in price. She hasn't won going this distance but she has the best Beyer Speed Figures and most of her races going this far were against much better. She can also be a pretty tough horse to get past when she makes the lead and that could be the case here. BROKEN HEARTED was a stakes winner at the distance as a 3-year-old and she only got to try one three-turn race in an abbreviated season last year. She was facing much tougher in her comeback race and she could be set for a big effort for a trainer that is 17 percent with horses going from a sprint to a route over the past five years. DASHING DAISY figures to move forward after finishing a solid second in her first try going around three turns. SARGENT SALLY is a proven route winner and runs well fresh.

RACE FIVE: GO SWEETLY got up just in time to win her latest and the horse she beat came right back to easily win her next start last weekend. She is moving up in class but she looked pretty sharp in her interim work and she was right there in four of her five starts last year. She could also be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. VELOCITRON may have finished fifth in her latest but she was part of the photo for second and she had to go pretty wide all the way around the stretch turn. She just needs a little luck when she's making her move and she could be the winner of what appears to be a wide-open event. There should also be an honest pace to help set her up. The same can be said for CAROLYN'S MONARCH who also had to go wide while GOTTHEGREENLIGHT got through along the rail in the same race.

RACE SIX: LUCK OF THE DEVIL was no match for an easy winner when he dropped to this level and distance for his latest and he could improve in his second start in an abbreviated sprint. Unless one of the first time starters leaves there running he should be able to clear early and he doesn't have that far to go to take them all the way. TWO LANE BLACKTOP could also move forward in his second try in one of these races and coming back this quickly shouldn't be an issue going this distance. CRASPEDIA shows two very good works out of the gate leading up to his debut and his trainer can have one ready to go first time out. He did cost $25K as a yearling so it isn't very encouraging to see him show up for this price in his debut, however. Like all of the first time starters, he doesn’t have great win-early breeding.

RACE SEVEN: RAISING MEMO hasn't had a break since he finished third in his debut at Bay Meadows Fair in the summer of 2008 so it is hard to say how he will run as a fresh horse. His trainer can have them ready to go coming off of this type of layoff, though, and Raising Memo has been working decently since he arrived at Hastings in March. Hard not to like his versatility because he has won on dirt, turf, going long and short. BATTLE OF HASTINGS won his last two starts at this level and we can forgive him for fading when he set extremely fast fractions when he doubled his price in his latest. He won't have to go as fast here and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take them all the way. FULL POWER AHEAD finished full of run in both of his starts versus tougher in his first two starts here and could make some noise from off the pace.

RACE EIGHT: SUPER STEVE cuts back to a sprint and drops into a conditional claimer following a very good effort going around three turns versus open $7,500 claimers May 25. His Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races stand out and with the drop in class he is going to be very tough to beat. He also has enough speed to get into a good position early despite leaving from an outside post. THAT'SMYRIVAL has been right there in three starts at this level (the claiming price for the non-winners of three category was recently dropped to $5K) and if he runs his usual race he should be able to pick up another slice. TWOFOURTIME looks like the one they'll have to catch and he could take them a long way in his second start of the year. A REAL STORM got away slowly and then made a strong late move in his initial outing this year and could make some noise from off the pace.