Race Analysis for July 9

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: SARATOGA INTENTION appears to be coming to hand for trainer Troy Taylor who over the past five years is 23 percent with horses stretching out for the first time. She is by a sire that won going 1 1/4 miles and her dam won three route races so she should appreciate the chance to stretch her legs. Plus, her only older sibling is also a route winner. THAT'S HOW WE ROLL has been right there in both of her sprints at this level and she ran okay when she went long on the grass at Turf Paradise. She also has the best Tomlinson Figure for the distance despite the fact that her sire won two races sprinting and went unplaced in his lone try going long. AINTNOMISBEHAVIN will appreciate the easier company but not sure about her ability to go long as her dam was strictly a sprinter and her only sibling has won a couple of sprints.

RACE TWO: EMBANKMENT ran a solid race to finish third in a similar race when she debuted June 19 and could improve enough to win her second start. She is facing boys but she is the only horse in the field with a race behind her going around two turns and she should have a big edge with the experience behind her. Plus, all six of her siblings are winners. LA BRONCA comes out of a barn that has done extremely well with their babies in recent years and she ran a decent race when she debuted going 3 1/2 furlongs June 18. Nice work since she ran and the leading rider keeps the faith. JUMP UP AND KISSME is one of four from the Phil Hall barn and he out-finished KING OF THE SKY when they worked five-furlongs on July 2.

RACE THREE: TEQUISQUIAPAN lost by a nose to BRYMIC'S GEM when they met in a similar race June 25 but he did all the hard work going three-wide early while BRYMIC'S GEM had the perfect trip from a stalking position. TEQUISQUIAPAN moves closer to the rail and shouldn't have to go as wide if he breaks alertly. There is other speed in the field and once again BRYMIC'S GEM figures to get a nice trip from a stalking position. GUNS N GOLD could also get a nice trip from his inside post and he gets in light. Barroby has solid stats in the sprint to route category and the sharp interim move on July 1 is a good sign this guy is coming up to a big race. T J GEMINI hung in there a long time in his first try going around three turns and could take a big step forward with the experience behind him.

RACE FOUR: SIMPLY SAM looks like a standout. He easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and he will appreciate the 50 percent drop in price. He really hasn't run a bad race in eight starts and if he runs his usual race he'll be tough to beat. MAUDEST DANCER got hung out pretty wide going around the first turn so it wasn't that surprising that he got a little late when he finished second at this level in his latest. He has made steady progress in his second and third starts and could be coming up to a peak effort. KING KATZ faded badly in his comeback race and he also stopped when he debuted last year. He is taking a substantial drop, however, and could be dangerous if he clears early.

RACE FIVE: EPICUREAN forced an honest pace and held on well to just miss when she dropped to this level for her latest and a similar effort will likely be good enough. It looks like she has enough speed to clear and the solid four-furlong move on July 4 is another encouraging sing. LA NORIA exits the same race and she had a pretty good trip from just off of the pace but couldn't make up the necessary ground in the stretch. Hard not to like her consistency but she has had her fair share of chances and hasn't been able to get it done. She looks a lot better underneath than on top. TOUCH N GO ran an improved race in her latest and could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. VYING FOR PLEASURE hasn't run to her very good works but the leading rider is attracted and maybe he can get her to show the same kind of stuff at the races that she has in the mornings.

RACE SIX: NUCLEAR PROSPECT has earned bullets for his last two works and he has a win and a second from two starts at the distance. His trainer can certainly have them ready to go coming off of this type of layoff and the jockey-trainer combo have teamed up to win 42 percent of their starts at the current meet. MR. APPLE CIDER received a solid Beyer Speed Figure for his second going this distance at the end of May and has worked sharply while preparing for his return. He also ran a big race to finish fourth behind a couple of next out winners in his first start this year going this far so we know he can fire fresh. Of course it all depends on how they break going this distance and it is encouraging to see Fuentes, who can get them out of there in a hurry, retain the mount. AFLEET MAC set decent fractions in both of his starts going longer this year and won't mind the move to a quarter-horse like sprint for the first time.

RACE SEVEN: FINALLY KRUISIN will find this field of first level allowance horses a lot easier to deal with than the tough group of optional horses he faced in his latest start. He has a couple of wins at the distance and there should be an honest enough pace to set him up. CHEROKEE NOTION will likely be one of the ones on or near the lead and he is out of a mare that won five route races so there is a good chance he'll be able to carry his speed this far. MISS KAY DEE RAINE is facing boy s but she came close to winning a stakes race at the distance and she figures to take a big step forward in her first route this year. She has looked pretty sharp in her last couple of works and her new trainer has decent stats in the sprint to route category - 20 percent since he returned to training a couple of years ago. LORNEFIVEHUNDRED beat the top pick sprinting two back and could be worth a look at what figures to be a decent price.

RACE EIGHT: WANDERING GYPSY ran a big race to finish second in a similar race when he debuted on June 11 and his sharp two-furlong work on Tuesday is a good sign he's ready to run another fast race going this short. The horse he probably has to beat comes out of the same barn and ALITAX also ran a big race to finish second in her debut. It was going longer, however, so we'll give the edge to WANDERING GYPSY who is also coming back a little sooner. Over the past five years their trainer has a 20 percent strike rate with horses making their second start. FIN DU JOUR shortens up after showing good speed in his latest and the horse that beat him came right back to win a $5K non-winners of two here last weekend. He's been right there in all of his longer sprints and once again figures to be part of the equation.